SANAA / DUBAI — In a move that could effectively sever the final major artery for global energy and trade, Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced on Sunday, March 29, 2026, that they are “seriously considering” the complete closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This threat follows the group’s formal entry into the U.S.-Israel-Iran war yesterday and represents a catastrophic “double-choke” scenario for a global economy already reeling from the month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Bab el-Mandeb, a 29km-wide passage between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, facilitates roughly 12% of all global trade and nearly 10% of the world’s seaborne oil.
The “Double-Choke” Reality
For the past 30 days, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blocked, forcing Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations to rely almost exclusively on the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb to export crude oil via the East-West Pipeline to the port of Yanbu.
- Saudi Arabia’s “Life Support”: Millions of barrels of Saudi crude are currently transiting the Bab el-Mandeb daily. A Houthi closure would slam shut the only remaining “escape hatch” for Gulf energy.
- Asia-Europe Lifeline: Approximately 40% of all container ship traffic between Asia and Europe passes through this strait. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10–14 days to a voyage, spiking fuel costs and freight rates by an estimated 40-60%.
- The Humanitarian Impact: The strait is a vital corridor for food, fertilizers, and medical supplies. Analysts warn that a closure would trigger a “global inflationary explosion” far exceeding the supply chain shocks of 2021 or 2024.
Military Readiness and “Zero Hour”
Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Mansour stated that closing the strait is a “strategic option” that will be triggered if U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure—specifically universities and water facilities—continue.
- “On the Trigger”: Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi confirmed the group is “fully militarily ready” with all options on the table, awaiting “zero hour” from the central command of the Axis of Resistance.
- Anti-Ship Arsenal: Intelligence reports suggest the Houthis have deployed advanced anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) and unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) along the Hodeidah coastline, capable of striking any vessel within the narrow 18-mile channel.
- The “Friendly” Exception: Similar to Iran’s policy in Hormuz, the Houthis have hinted that ships from “non-belligerent” nations (such as Russia, China, and Pakistan) may be granted selective passage, while those linked to the U.S., UK, or Israel will be “legitimate targets.”
Global Shipping at a Breaking Point
| Metric | Impact of Bab el-Mandeb Closure |
| Global Trade Share | 12% of all seaborne trade diverted or halted. |
| Oil Volume | ~4.8 Million Barrels/Day removed from the immediate market. |
| Supply Chain Lag | +14 Days for deliveries between Asia and Europe. |
| Insurance Cost | Premiums expected to rise to 2-3% of vessel value. |
What’s Next?
The threat has sent shockwaves through the emergency summit in Islamabad, where foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Egypt are meeting today. If the Houthis pull the trigger on the Bab el-Mandeb, the U.S. and Israel may be forced to launch a “major ground intervention” in western Yemen to secure the coastline—a move that would broaden the war into a truly global conflict.
