U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated on Monday, March 30, 2026, that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to show a modest but steady increase. This shift follows a month of near-total paralysis and is being driven by a series of individual, country-specific “safe passage” agreements brokered directly with Tehran, effectively bypassing the formal international shipping protocols that were shattered at the war’s onset.
The Rise of “Discriminatory Transit”
According to Treasury analysis and updated ship-tracking data, the volume of vessels transiting the chokepoint has risen from a low of 4–5 ships per day in mid-March to an average of 12–15 this week.
- The “Friendly” Tier: Iran has reportedly established a vetting system through the IRGC, granting passage to nations it deems “non-adversarial.” This includes China, Russia, Pakistan, and India.
- Bilateral Exceptions: Secretary Yellen noted that even some nations traditionally aligned with the West, such as Malaysia and Thailand, have successfully negotiated the release of trapped tankers or secured future transit rights through direct diplomatic “side deals.”
- The “Toll Booth” Model: Reports from Lloyd’s List suggest some of this traffic is facilitated by “security fees” or cargo-sharing agreements, with payments often settled in non-dollar currencies like the Chinese Yuan (CNY) to avoid U.S. sanctions.
U.S. Response: Cautious Optimism vs. Security Concerns
While the increase in traffic provides a slight “release valve” for global energy markets—which saw Brent crude peak at $126 per barrel earlier this month—the Treasury Department remains wary of the long-term implications.
- Market Fragility: Yellen cautioned that while traffic is “rising,” it remains at less than 10% of pre-war levels (which averaged 135-150 transits daily). The “K-shaped” recovery of the shipping sector favors specific nations while keeping U.S. and Israeli-linked vessels effectively barred.
- Inflationary Pressure: The Treasury warned that the reliance on these fragmented trade deals, rather than a free and open strait, keeps insurance premiums 400% to 600% higher than normal, sustaining high gasoline prices in the United States.
- Sanctions Loophole: There are growing concerns in Washington that these individual trade deals are being used to launder sanctioned Iranian oil into the global supply chain under the guise of “humanitarian” or “neutral” shipments.
Strategic Context: The “Islamabad Track”
The Treasury’s report coincides with President Trump’s recent shift in tone, calling the Iranian leadership “very reasonable.” Analysts suggest the U.S. is allowing these individual deals to proceed as a “de-escalation measure” while the “Islamabad Track” of peace talks gains momentum.
- The “Present”: Trump recently alluded to Iran allowing 10 oil tankers through as a “present” to him, suggesting that even the U.S. is participating in—or at least acknowledging—the utility of these back-channel maritime arrangements.
| Transit Statistic | Normal (Feb 2026) | Conflict Low (Mid-March) | Current (Mar 30, 2026) |
| Daily Transits | ~135-150 | 4-5 | 12-15 |
| Leading Nations | Global Mix | Iranian Shadow Fleet | China, Pakistan, India, Malaysia |
| Primary Currency | USD | N/A (Blockade) | CNY, Local Currencies |
The “Shadow Fleet” Warning
Despite the rising numbers, the Treasury Department issued a formal warning to maritime insurers regarding the “SinoOcean” tactic—where non-Chinese ships broadcast “CHINA OWNER” on their AIS signals to trick IRGC sensors. The U.S. maintains that such “identity spoofing” creates a high risk of miscalculation and accidental strikes, which have already claimed the lives of eight seafarers this month.
